- 风险灾害危机研究（第十辑）
- 童星 张海波主编
- 4082字
- 2021-04-23 18:13:57
五 结论
本文以文献计量分析软件CiteSpace V为工具，对Web of Science上“基础设施脆弱性”领域的3147篇样本文献进行了分析。通过知识图谱的生成，了解到近30年来“基础设施脆弱性”领域的研究成果随时间推移呈现出显著的增长态势。美国是此领域发文量最多的国家，但国际合作及影响力方面英国的研究者更胜一筹。中国在发文数量上排到第三位，但影响力却只排到第八，成果质量和数量尚不匹配。
通过文献共被引网络聚类分析，结合作者共被引频次，发现当前基础设施脆弱性研究可主要归为三个主题：以电网和交通基础设施为主要研究对象的工程领域的脆弱性、关联基础设施的脆弱性以及气候变化情景下基础设施的脆弱性。电网和交通基础设施的脆弱性评估多以复杂网络理论为基础，学者们在长期研究中逐渐建立起了基础设施脆弱性概念和内涵体系，并形成了工程领域的基础设施脆弱性分析范式；关联基础设施脆弱性分析是本领域的当前热点研究方向，在关联性识别、分析模型构建方面涌现了大量的研究成果，科学全面的治理策略还有待进一步研究，而这一主题内中国学者的研究成果具有一定的影响力；气候变化及极端天气是当前全球共同关注的话题，在其背景下基础设施脆弱性有了新的内涵，加入了弹性和适应性的概念，这一主题的研究正契合我国当前进行的气候变化适应型城市建设，具有很强的借鉴意义。本文的研究成果可为相关领域学者提供全局性参考，在各研究主题下可进一步细化研究议题，更加深入地分析研究内容、拓展研究方法，持续推动基础设施脆弱性理论的发展。
参考文献
［1］肖明. 信息计量学［M］. 北京：中国铁道出版社，2014：16.
［2］李杰，陈超美. CiteSpace：科技文本挖掘及可视化［M］. 北京：首都经济贸易大学出版社，2016：89.
［3］H. Small. Co-citation in the scientific literature：A new measure of the relationship between two documents［J］. Journal of the American Society for Information Science，1973，24：265-269.
［4］M. Ouyang，L. Hong，Z. Mao，et al.. A methodological approach to analyze vulnerability of interdependent infrastructures［J］. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory，2009，17：817-828.
［5］M. Ouyang. Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems［J］. Reliability Engineering and System Safety，2014，121：43-60.
［6］M. Ouyang，L. Duenas-Osorio，X. Min. A three-stage resilience analysis framework for urban infrastructure systems［J］. Structural Safety，2012，36-37：23-31.
［7］E. Zio. Reliability engineering：Old problems and new challenges［J］. Reliability Engineering and System Safety，2009，94：125-141.
［8］J. Johansson，H. Hassel，E. Zio，Reliability and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures：Comparing two approaches in the context of power systems［J］. Reliability Engineering and System Safety，2013（120）：27-38.
［9］Y. Y. Haimes. On the definition of vulnerabilities in measuring risk to infrastructures［J］. Risk Analysis，2006，26：293-296.
［10］UNDRO. Natural disasters and vulnerability analysis—Report of expert group［EB/OL］. https：//archive.org/details/naturaldisasters00offi，2018-11-29.
［11］S. Cutter. Hazards，vulnerability and environmental justice［M］. London：Earthscan Publication，2006：151.
［12］R. Francis，B. Bekera. A metric and frameworks for resilience analysis of engineered and infrastructure systems［J］. Reliability Engineering and System Safety，2014，121：90-103.
［13］T. Aven，E. Zio. Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making［J］. Reliability Engineering and System Safety，2011，96：64-74.
［14］E. Jenelius，T. Petersen，L. Mattsson. Importance and exposure in road network vulnerability analysis［J］. Transportation Research Part A，2006，40：537-560.
［15］R. Albert，I. Albert，G. L. Nakarado. Structural Vulnerability of the North American Power Grid［DB/OL］. arXiv：cond-mat/0401084.
［16］D. J. Watts. A simple model of global cascades on random networks［J］. PANS，2002，99：5766-5771.
［17］A. Barabasi，R. Albert. Emergence of scaling in random networks［J］. Science，1999，286：509-512.
［18］D. J. Watts，S. H. Strogatz. Collective dynamics of “small-world” networks［J］. Nature，1998，393：440-442.
［19］汪小帆，李翔，陈关荣. 复杂网络理论及其应用［M］. 北京：清华大学出版社，2006：8.
［20］S. Strogatz. Exploring complex networks［J］. Nature，2001，410：268-276.
［21］V. Rosato，S. Bologna，F. Tiriticco. Topological properties of high-voltage electrical transmission networks［J］. Electric Power Systems Research，2007，77：99-105.
［22］A. T. Murray，T. C. Matisziw，T. H. Grubesic. A methodological overview of network vulnerability analysis［J］. Growth and Change，2008，39：573-592.
［23］T. C. Matisziw，A. T. Murray，T. H. Grubesic. Exploring the vulnerability of network infrastructure to disruption［J］. The Annals of Regional Science，2009，43：307-321.
［24］M. E. J. Newman. The structure and function of complex networks［J］. SIAM Review，2003，45：167-256.
［25］韩传峰，等. 关键基础设施系统保护建模与仿真［M］. 北京：科学出版社，2016.
［26］R.L. Church，M. Scaparra，R. Middleton. Identifying critical infrastructure：the median and covering facility interdiction Problems［J］. Annals of the Association of American Geographers，2004，94：491-502.
［27］M. Rosas-Casals，S. Valverde，R. Sole. Topological vulnerability of the European power grid under errors and attacks［J］. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos，2007，17：2465-2475.
［28］T.C. Matisziw，A.T. Murray. Modeling s-t availability to support disaster vulnerability assessment of network infrastructure［J］. Computers & Operations Research，2009，36：16-26.
［29］S. Rinaldi，J. Peerenboom，T. Kelly. Identifying，understanding and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies［J］. IEEE Control System Magazine，2001，21：11-25.
［30］S.L.Wang，L.Hong. X. Chen. Vulnerability analysis of interdependent infrastructure systems：a methodological framework［J］. Physica A，2012，391：3323-3335.
［31］S. Buldyrev，R. Parshani，G. Paul，et al. Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks［J］. Nature，2010，464：1025-1028.
［32］J.X. Gao，S. V. Buldyrev，S. Havlin，et al. Robustness of a network of networks［J］. Physical Review Letters，2011，107：195701.
［33］J. Winkler，L. Dueñas-Osorio，A. Asce，et al. Interface network models for complex urban infrastructure systems［J］. Journal of Infrastructure Systems，2011，17：138-150.
［34］IRGC. White Paper on Managing and Reducing Social Vulnerabilities from Coupled Critical Infrastructures［EB/OL］. http：//irgc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/IRGC_WP_No_3_Critical_Infrastructures.pdf，2018-11-29.
［35］World Economic Forum. The global risks report 2017［EB/OL］. http：//www3.weforum.org/docs/GRR17_Report_web.pdf，2018-11-29.
［36］W. Adger. Vulnerability［J］. Global Environmental Change，2006，16：268-281.
［37］C. Holling. Principles of insect predation［J］. Annual Review of Entomology，1961（6）：163-182.
［38］C. Holling. Resilience and stability of ecological systems［J］. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics，1973（4）：1-23.
［39］D. Woods. Creating foresight：lessons for enhancing resilience from Columbia［A］. In W. Starbuck，M. Farjoun（ed.）. Organization at the Limit：Lessons from the Columbia Disaster［C］. Malden，MA：Wiley-Blackwell，2005：289-308.
［40］Y. Y. Haimes. On the definition of resilience in systems［J］. Risk Analysis，2009，29：498-501.
［41］H. Kitano. Systems biology：a brief overview［J］. Science，2002，295：1662-1664.
［42］H. Füssel. Vulnerability：A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research［J］. Global Environmental Change，2007，17：155-167.
［43］G. Cimellaro，A. Reinhorn，M. Bruneau. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience［J］. Engineering Structures，2010，32：3639-3649.
［44］B. Smit. J. Wandel. Adaptation，adaptive capacity and vulnerability［J］. Global Environmental Change，2006，16：282-292.
［45］A. Hunt，P. Watkiss. Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities：a review of the literature［J］. Climatic Change，2011，104：13-49.
［46］I. R. Noble，S. Huq，Y. Anokhin，et al. Climate change 2014：Impacts，adaptation，and vulnerability［A］. In C. B. Field，V. R. Barros，D. J. Dokken，et al（ed.）. Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change［C］. Cambridge：Cambridge University Press，2014：833-868.
［47］C. Folke. Resilience：The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses［J］. Global Environmental Change，2006（6）：253-267.
［48］J. Birkmann，M. Garschagen，F. Kraas，et al.. Adaptive urban governance：new challenges for the second generation of urban adaptation strategies to climate change［J］. Sustainability Science，2010（5）：185-206.
Literature Review on Infrastructure Vulnerability Based on Bibliometrics
Yu Xiaoying Zhu Demi
Abstract：In modern society，more and more terrorist attacks and extreme weathers have promoted infrastructure vulnerability becoming a popular topic in risk governance community. Researches are increasing and more systemic than ever. The mainstream of the research looks more clearly as well. To understand the academic framework generally，this paper presented bibliometrics analysis based on the sample literature on infrastructure vulnerability via the Web of Science. According to literature co-citation clustering，we find there are three main stream topics at present：infrastructure vulnerability assessment in engineering，infrastructure vulnerability under climate change scenario，and the vulnerability analysis on interdependent infrastructures. The review and discussion of the literature can be used as a positive reference for researchers and policy-makers.
Keywords：Infrastructure；Vulnerability；Literature review；Bibliometrics
[1] 基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国市级发展规划编制中的公众参与机制研究”（项目批准号：13ZD176）。
[2] 俞晓莹，同济大学经济与管理学院博士生，主要研究方向为城市基础设施风险、脆弱性评估与公共决策；朱德米，上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院，博士、教授、博士生导师，主要研究方向为城市风险管理、公共政策分析与评估、环境政策与管理。
[3] 肖明. 信息计量学［M］. 北京：中国铁道出版社，2014：16.
[4] 李杰，陈超美. CiteSpace：科技文本挖掘及可视化［M］. 北京：首都经济贸易大学出版社，2016：89.
[5] H. Small. Co-citation in the scientific literature：A new measure of the relationship between two documents［J］. Journal of the American Society for Information Science，1973，24：265-269.
[6] M. Ouyang，L. Hong，Z. Mao，et al.. A methodological approach to analyze vulnerability of interdependent infrastructures［J］. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory，2009，17：817-828.
[7] M. Ouyang. Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems［J］. Reliability Engineering and System Safety，2014，121：43-60.
[8] M. Ouyang，L. Duenas-Osorio，X. Min. A three-stage resilience analysis framework for urban infrastructure systems［J］. Structural Safety，2012，36-37：23-31.
[9] E. Zio. Reliability engineering：Old problems and new challenges［J］. Reliability Engineering and System Safety，2009，94：125-141.
[10] J. Johansson，H. Hassel，E. Zio，Reliability and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures：Comparing two approaches in the context of power systems［J］. Reliability Engineering and System Safety，2013（120）：27-38.
[11] Y. Y. Haimes. On the definition of vulnerabilities in measuring risk to infrastructures［J］. Risk Analysis，2006，26：293-296.
[12] UNDRO. Natural disasters and vulnerability analysis—Report of expert group［EB/OL］. https：//archive.org/details/naturaldisasters00offi，2018-11-29.
[13] S. Cutter. Hazards，vulnerability and environmental justice［M］. London：Earthscan Publication，2006：151.
[14] R. Francis，B. Bekera. A metric and frameworks for resilience analysis of engineered and infrastructure systems［J］. Reliability Engineering and System Safety，2014，121：90-103.
[15] T. Aven，E. Zio. Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making［J］. Reliability Engineering and System Safety，2011，96：64-74.
[16] E. Jenelius，T. Petersen，L. Mattsson. Importance and exposure in road network vulnerability analysis［J］. Transportation Research Part A，2006，40：537-560.
[17] R. Albert，I. Albert，G. L. Nakarado. Structural Vulnerability of the North American Power Grid［DB/OL］. arXiv：cond-mat/0401084.
[18] D. J. Watts. A simple model of global cascades on random networks［J］. PANS，2002，99：5766-5771.
[19] A. Barabasi，R. Albert. Emergence of scaling in random networks［J］. Science，1999，286：509-512.
[20] D. J. Watts，S. H. Strogatz. Collective dynamics of “small-world” networks［J］. Nature，1998，393：440-442.
[21] 汪小帆，李翔，陈关荣. 复杂网络理论及其应用［M］. 北京：清华大学出版社，2006：8.
[22] S. Strogatz. Exploring complex networks［J］. Nature，2001，410：268-276.
[23] V. Rosato，S. Bologna，F. Tiriticco. Topological properties of high-voltage electrical transmission networks［J］. Electric Power Systems Research，2007，77：99-105.
[24] 汪小帆，李翔，陈关荣. 复杂网络理论及其应用［M］. 北京：清华大学出版社，2006：8.
[25] A. T. Murray，T. C. Matisziw，T. H. Grubesic. A methodological overview of network vulnerability analysis［J］. Growth and Change，2008，39：573-592.
[26] T. C. Matisziw，A. T. Murray，T. H. Grubesic. Exploring the vulnerability of network infrastructure to disruption［J］. The Annals of Regional Science，2009，43：307-321.
[27] M. E. J. Newman. The structure and function of complex networks［J］. SIAM Review，2003，45：167-256.
[28] 韩传峰，等. 关键基础设施系统保护建模与仿真［M］. 北京：科学出版社，2016.
[29] R.L. Church，M. Scaparra，R. Middleton. Identifying critical infrastructure：the median and covering facility interdiction Problems［J］. Annals of the Association of American Geographers，2004，94：491-502.
[30] M. Rosas-Casals，S. Valverde，R. Sole. Topological vulnerability of the European power grid under errors and attacks［J］. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos，2007，17：2465-2475.
[31] T.C. Matisziw，A.T. Murray. Modeling s-t availability to support disaster vulnerability assessment of network infrastructure［J］. Computers & Operations Research，2009，36：16-26.
[32] S. Rinaldi，J. Peerenboom，T. Kelly. Identifying，understanding and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies［J］. IEEE Control System Magazine，2001，21：11-25.
[33] M. Ouyang. Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems［J］. Reliability Engineering and System Safety，2014，121：43-60.
[34] M. Ouyang，L. Hong，Z. Mao，et al.. A methodological approach to analyze vulnerability of interdependent infrastructures［J］. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory，2009，17：817-828.
[35] S.L.Wang，L.Hong. X. Chen. Vulnerability analysis of interdependent infrastructure systems：a methodological framework［J］. Physica A，2012，391：3323-3335.
[36] S. Buldyrev，R. Parshani，G. Paul，et al. Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks［J］. Nature，2010，464：1025-1028.
[37] J.X. Gao，S. V. Buldyrev，S. Havlin，et al. Robustness of a network of networks［J］. Physical Review Letters，2011，107：195701.
[38] J. Winkler，L. Dueñas-Osorio，A. Asce，et al. Interface network models for complex urban infrastructure systems［J］. Journal of Infrastructure Systems，2011，17：138-150.
[39] S.L.Wang，L.Hong. X. Chen. Vulnerability analysis of interdependent infrastructure systems：a methodological framework［J］. Physica A，2012，391：3323-3335.
[40] IRGC. White Paper on Managing and Reducing Social Vulnerabilities from Coupled Critical Infrastructures［EB/OL］. http：//irgc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/IRGC_WP_No_3_Critical_Infrastructures.pdf，2018-11-29.
[41] World Economic Forum. The global risks report 2017［EB/OL］. http：//www3.weforum.org/docs/GRR17_Report_web.pdf，2018-11-29.
[42] W. Adger. Vulnerability［J］. Global Environmental Change，2006，16：268-281.
[43] C. Holling. Principles of insect predation［J］. Annual Review of Entomology，1961（6）：163-182.
[44] C. Holling. Resilience and stability of ecological systems［J］. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics，1973（4）：1-23.
[45] D. Woods. Creating foresight：lessons for enhancing resilience from Columbia［A］. In W. Starbuck，M. Farjoun（ed.）. Organization at the Limit：Lessons from the Columbia Disaster［C］. Malden，MA：Wiley-Blackwell，2005：289-308.
[46] Y. Y. Haimes. On the definition of resilience in systems［J］. Risk Analysis，2009，29：498-501.
[47] H. Kitano. Systems biology：a brief overview［J］. Science，2002，295：1662-1664.
[48] H. Füssel. Vulnerability：A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research［J］. Global Environmental Change，2007，17：155-167.
[49] G. Cimellaro，A. Reinhorn，M. Bruneau. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience［J］. Engineering Structures，2010，32：3639-3649.
[50] B. Smit. J. Wandel. Adaptation，adaptive capacity and vulnerability［J］. Global Environmental Change，2006，16：282-292.
[51] A. Hunt，P. Watkiss. Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities：a review of the literature［J］. Climatic Change，2011，104：13-49.
[52] I. R. Noble，S. Huq，Y. Anokhin，et al. Climate change 2014：Impacts，adaptation，and vulnerability［A］. In C. B. Field，V. R. Barros，D. J. Dokken，et al（ed.）. Contribution of Working Group Ⅱ to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change［C］. Cambridge：Cambridge University Press，2014：833-868.
[53] C. Folke. Resilience：The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses［J］. Global Environmental Change，2006（6）：253-267.
[54] J. Birkmann，M. Garschagen，F. Kraas，et al.. Adaptive urban governance：new challenges for the second generation of urban adaptation strategies to climate change［J］. Sustainability Science，2010（5）：185-206.