9 Chaos

Chaos is usually defined as a confused, unorganized state or the inherent unpredictability of a complex natural system. In project management, chaos is the embodiment of the inherent unpredictability of a unique situation. It is the confused, unorganized state that results from the need to prioritize, plan, and execute a project that involves significant unknowns. Chaos can apply to either a specific project or an entire project portfolio.

The Sin

Chaos results from a host of project management problems. The list includes failure to involve users, lack of complete specifications, changing requirements, unrealistic expectations, incompetence, weak executive support, and insufficient resources, to name a few. Chaos is often self-inflicted but also can be caused by external factors.

Unfortunately, chaos is very common in project management, as affirmed by the enormous failure rate of projects in general. Since 1994, with the publication of the first Chaos Report, the Standish Group has been providing project management research, reports, and services about chaos. Apparently, there’s no danger of running out of examples of chaos in projects!

Chaos in project management manifests itself in a variety of ways, from constant shifts in project or task priorities, to frequent replanning and restarting, to costly overruns in time and expense, to project cancellation. It results in wasted resources, frustrated staff, and dissatisfied users. In particular, personnel resources are wasted when their working environment is so chaotic that they are constantly forced to shift from one unfinished task to another task, which they in turn must leave prior to its completion to work on something even more critical. The mental setup and setdown time rarely is calculated, but most experts believe it is substantial. There is good multitasking, such as working on another task when the original task experiences an unavoidable interruption, but bad multitasking results in slower work and poorer quality (see shoddy quality).

Chaos in a project or process, if detected early, often can be corrected at little additional cost. If, on the other hand, a project that has been under development for a long time is abandoned, substantial resources have been wasted. Even when a project is completed, but completed late, an organization can lose competitive advantage, market share, or even a full line of business.

A Case of Chaos

My most serious exposure to project management chaos involved an organization’s entire portfolio.

After a brief examination of current projects, I decided to review the organization’s recent project management history. I could not find even one example of a successfully completed project—one that came in on time, with complete specifications intact, and at the budgeted cost. Many previously initiated projects had just faded away with resources no longer assigned to them, but not canceled, while others had morphed into new projects. This was project management in total chaos.

As this situation had been ongoing for some time, I could not come close to estimating the cost of lost resources in time and money. The consulting service was a quantifiable additional cost that the organization should not have required.

I did discover an interesting phenomenon. Interviews with several project managers revealed that they had much discretion in choosing the projects on which they worked. The staff had learned early on that they would never have to finish a project or be held accountable. If they lost interest in a project, they could just wait it out until something better came along. If progress stalled on a particular project, management always had something more urgent to be done—at least for a time.

Turnover was at a reasonable level and morale among the staff was fairly high. Management believed in a pleasant work environment and they had certainly accomplished that, but they were also concerned about not meeting their goals.

Danger Signs

The need to replan a project is a sign that either the original plan was inadequate or some unexpected force interceded. In any case, this is a circumstance that must be carefully studied for possible ramifications on other projects.

Management should review all staff reassignments. Someone leaving a project or looking for a new assignment prior to completion of his work can be an early warning sign that the project is in trouble or at least unpopular (see popularity) for some reason. The reasons for reassignment should be investigated and any underlying problems corrected.

Solutions

In project management, although we talk a lot about lessons learned, it is rare that lessons are actually passed on. We usually record the project problems and successes, but then we put them in the project folder never to be seen again. Project managers should review all previous project records and ensure that their own project lessons are recorded and accessible.

To avoid many of the problems that cause chaos, the project manager should use best practices that, to the extent possible, avoid these problems. Project management professionals know that certain rules and processes must be followed. They know that deviations from proven processes should occur only when absolutely necessary.

Several tools, such as earned value project management, can provide an objective measure of project progress. In addition, project managers must do everything they can to ensure that senior management has complete agreement and buy-in on basic and primary project management policies. If they fail in this responsibility, priorities will change unnecessarily, and so will the availability of resources. Chaos will reign—or at least rain on their parade.

Tips for Controlling Chaos

Use earned value project management software or some automation tool that requires progress reporting.

Tightly control the number of concurrently authorized projects.

Appoint a board member (or committee) to be responsible for receiving project status reports at every meeting.

Discourage dysfunctional multitasking.